According to a survey conducted by the Global Business Travel Association, many of its global industry respondents expect a decline in business travel, with overall optimism slipping in recent weeks amid growing political uncertainty.

GBTA received a total of 905 responses for the survey, conducted from March 31 to April 8, from travel buyers, suppliers and other industry professionals across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.

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Recent U.S. government actions — cited in the GBTA survey as including tariffs on imported goods, entry restrictions for travelers from certain countries, travel advisories targeting the U.S., cross-border policies posing detainment risks and reduced business travel by federal employees — are seen as key drivers of the downturn.

According to the survey, 29% of travel buyers anticipate a decline in business travel at their companies over the next year, while 27% expect an average reduction of 20% in travel-related spending.

Meanwhile, nearly 37% of suppliers and travel management company (TMC) professionals anticipate an aver 18% drop in business travel revenue next year, while 25% believe their revenue will remain untouched by recent U.S. government policies.

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GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang noted two key factors that could shape the long-term outlook for business travel — ongoing economic pressure or uncertainty affecting corporate budgets, and potential restrictions on cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the U.S.

Since January 2025, 7% of buyer organizations have changed their travel policies for U.S. trips, while 25% are considering it. Most (64%) have not made changes. Up to 20% have canceled or moved meetings from the U.S. and 10% are considering employee attendance. Overall, 14% have relocated or are considering relocating events, with non-U.S. companies three times mor elikely to do so.

Respondents said top long-term concerns include rising travel costs (54%), potential budget cuts (40%) and increased administrative requirements like visas (46%). Traveler-related worries — such as employee willingness to travel to the U.S. and safety concerns — were each cited by 37%. Additionally, 23% of respondents say they personally know someone whose trip was affected by recent U.S. travel policy changes.

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“Traveling for work plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections,” Neufang added in the April 16 release. “Productive and essential business travel is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions. This undermines economic prosperity and damages the many sectors that rely on global business travel to survive and thrive.”