The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second straight meeting on March 18 but maintained an expectation of at least one modest rate cut later this year.

Fed officials voted 11-1 to keep the rate steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% as higher energy prices tied to the Iran war figure to make the central bank’s task of combatting inflation without raising unemployment even more challenging.

The hold likewise maintains the effective federal funds rate at 3.64% — where it’s been since Dec. 12, 2025.

Meanwhile, in the Fed’s latest quarterly projections, 12 of its 19 governors indicated they expect at least one rate cut later this year — the same as in December — though several officials anticipate fewer reductions.

In its statement coming out of the March 18 meeting, the bank noted that economic outlook uncertainty remains elevated while Iran war implications are uncertain as it pertains to the Fed’s dual mandate of achieving long-term inflation of 2% while achieving maximum employment.

The Fed’s next FOMC meeting is April 28-29.