May U.S. Industrial Production Misses Expectations with Slight Gain - Modern Distribution Management

May U.S. Industrial Production Misses Expectations with Slight Gain

Overall industrial output decelerated considerably month-over-month as solid durable goods production was negated by an equal nondurable decline.
Train mechanic working on engine at heavy industry factory.

U.S Industrial Production edged up 0.1% during May, missing topping market expectations for a 0.3% gain after a much larger 0.9% jump in April that was upwardly revised from 0.7%

On an annual basis, production accelerated to a 1.7% gain in May after a 1.4% April increase.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, issued June 15, showed that manufacturing output was flat in May month-over-month after a 0.7% jump in April.

The May indexes for mining jumped 1.3% MoM (+0.2% in April) and utilities output declined 0.4% (+2.2% in April).

Meanwhile, U.S. industrial capacity utilization improved to 76.2% — a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. At 102.6% of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 1.7% above its year-earlier level.

U.S. Industrial Production: Month-Over-Month % Change

U.S. Industrial Production: Year-Over-Year % Change

Market Groups

The major market groups posted mixed results in May. Production of consumer goods declined 0.5%, with an 0.8% fall in the index for nondurable consumer goods more than offsetting a 0.5% increase in the index for durable consumer goods. Production of business equipment rose 0.6%, led by an increase of 1.9% in the index for transit equipment. Output of defense and space equipment rose 0.9%. The index for construction supplies moved up 1.1%, while production of business supplies was unchanged. The index for materials gained 0.3%.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output moved sideways in May. Production of durable goods rose 0.8%, with increased output in almost all categories. Within durables, the indexes for wood products, for nonmetallic mineral products, for primary metals, and for motor vehicles and parts each grew more than 1.0 percent. Production of nondurable goods fell 0.9% in May, with declines in almost all categories.

In May, mining output grew 1.3%. The index for utilities fell 0.4%, with a 1.7% decline in electric utilities output more than offsetting an increase of 8.5% in natural gas utilities output.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing was unchanged in May at 75.7%, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. The operating rate for mining increased 1.2 percentage points to 86.5% in May, and the operating rate for utilities moved down 0.4 percentage points to 70.6%. The rate for mining was 1.3 percentage points above its long-run average, while the rate for utilities remained substantially below its long-run average.

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