HVACR distributors that are members of Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) saw an increase sales in September due to an extra billing day, and flat on a same-day basis.

HARDI members logged a 5.3% increase during September, following a 0.5% decline in August, a 6.8% increase in July and a 6.9% increase in June.

The annual sales growth for the 12 months through September 2025 is an increase of 4.6%.

“Cooling season 2025 ends with sales growth of 5.3% during September,” said Brian Loftus, Macroeconomic and Residential Market Analyst at HARDI. “That result got an extra boost from an extra billing day.  We estimate sales was about flat with the same number of billing days.”

The chart above illustrates the annual sales growth rate is now at the upper edge of the recent range, but that does not mean demand is improving.

“We believe underlying demand is comparable to last year, so most of this annual growth is due to price increases being passed through.  Confirmation of that is the latest sales to inventory ratio is comparable to the depressed levels of 2022 and 2023 after the supply chain crumbled.  Hopefully the start of heating season will provide some relief to that ratio.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributor’s Days Sales Outstanding, which is a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills.

“The DSO for September was near 38. That is comparable to the pace we saw one year ago. The Fed is cutting rates because the economy is slowing but HARDI customers are not exhibiting any deterioration,” Loftus added.

HARDI members voluntarily provide monthly sales data to an independent entity which collects and compiles the data. The data can include products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.