The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. rose 0.6% in July, its fourth consecutive monthly increase. The six-month change in the index has risen to 3.0% (a 6.2% annual rate) in the period through July, up substantially from -2.8% (a -5.4% annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading indicators have grown more widespread in recent months. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 101.6 (2004=100).
The Coincident Economic Index was unchanged in July, after decreasing for the past consecutive eight months. Between January and July 2009, the index fell 2.7% (a -5.4% annual rate), slower than the decline of 3.5% (a -6.8% annual rate) for the previous six months. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 99.7 (2004=100).
In July, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell 0.3%. With the coincident economic index remaining unchanged, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased further. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 110.8 (2004=100). Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 1.0% annual rate in the second quarter, following a contraction of 6.4% annual rate for the first quarter of the year.
The behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the recession is bottoming out and that economic activity will likely begin to recover soon.
