December U.S. Industrial Production Beats Expectations Alongside November Revision - Modern Distribution Management

December U.S. Industrial Production Beats Expectations Alongside November Revision

The U.S. ended the year with two straight healthy monthly gains, though 4Q25's manufacturing output was still still down year-over-year.
Train mechanic working on engine at heavy industry factory.

U.S Industrial Production climbed 0.4% during December, matching November’s mark that was revised upward from 0.2%. Year-over-year industrial production increased 2.0%.

The December monthly figure considerably beat economists’ consensus expectations of a 0.1% gain.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, issued Jan. 16, showed that manufacturing output rose 0.2% in December month-to-month and 2.0% year-over-year. November’s monthly figure was revised up from flat to 0.3%, while October’s moved down from -0.4% to -0.6%.

On a quarterly annualized basis, 4Q25 manufacturing production fell 0.7% after growing 2.8% in 3Q25.

December’s index for mining fell -0.7% month-to-month (+1.7% year-over-year) after a 1.7% gain in November, while Utilities jumped 2.6% (+2.3% YoY) after a -0.3% dip.

Meanwhile, U.S. industrial capacity utilization stepped up to 76.3%, which is still 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2024) average.

U.S. Industrial Production: Month-Over-Month % Change

U.S. Industrial Production: Year-Over-Year % Change

Market Groups

Most of the major market groups posted monthly gains in December. The output of consumer goods increased 0.7%, as a 1.1% rise in nondurables production outweighed a 0.7% decline in durables production. The index for business equipment grew 0.8%, supported by increases in the indexes for transit and for industrial and other equipment. Construction supplies declined of 0.3%, while the index for business supplies was flat. The index for materials rose 0.2%, with gains coming from the energy component. All of the major market group indexes ended the year above their year-earlier levels.

Industry Groups

Within manufacturing’s 0.2% monthly output increase in December, the durable manufacturing index edged up 0.1% with large contributions from growth in the output of primary metals (+2.4%); electrical equipment, appliances and components (+1.7%); as well as aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (+1.5%). Wood products, nonmetallic mineral products and motor vehicles and parts all posted declines of at least 1%. The nondurable manufacturing index increased 0.3%, with increases for food, beverage and tobacco products, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products offsetting decreases in the other nondurable manufacturing indexes. In December, output of durables was up 3.1% year-over-year, and output of nondurables was up 1.0%.

Mining output fell 0.7% in December but was up 1.7% year-over-year. The index for utilities increased 2.6% in December, supported by a rise of 12.0%  in the index for natural gas.

The operating rate for mining decreased a half-point to 85.7%, and the operating rate for utilities moved up 1.6 percentage points to 72.3%. The rate for mining was a half-point above its long-run average, while the rate for utilities remained substantially below .

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