Editor’s Note: This is Part 3 of a 4-part series previewing new research conducted by MDM, exploring how distributors can use strategic foresight to navigate disruption and prepare for multiple plausible futures. Part 1 covered the growing gap between confidence and capability in distribution strategy and why traditional planning isn’t enough. Part 2 introduced the underlying forces of change distributors see shaping the industry. In Part 3, we preview four distinct scenarios for wholesale distribution in 2035, developed through a structured foresight methodology. This research is generously sponsored by Infor. For deeper insights, join our free webcast discussion on June 25.
If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s this: the future is rarely what we predict.
Very few strategic plans from 2019, for example, anticipated a global pandemic, supply chain paralysis, sustained inflation, a generative AI explosion, or the return of widespread trade protectionism. Yet each of these forces has become central to how distributors now operate, compete, and plan.
Still, many strategic plans continue to assume a single baseline view of the which, at best, uses historical data in the form a “most-likely” forecast. That’s not foresight. Today, it’s downright risky. In our recent research, even distribution leaders who claim to use strategic foresight in their planning methodologies turn out to be describing more traditional forecasting techniques.
Strategic foresight practitioners often describe the future as plural. What this means is that distributors really need a framework for thinking beyond one future. They need to build resilience not just for the disruptions they see coming, but for those they haven’t yet even imagined. That’s the promise of scenario planning.
As part of our soon-to-be-released research with Infor, we’ve developed four distinct-yet-plausible scenarios for what wholesale distribution could look like in the year 2035. These scenarios are not predictions. They are structured explorations of what might happen based on how critical uncertainties play out — and what those futures could mean for distributors trying to stay relevant and resilient.
Why Scenarios? Why Now?
Strategic foresight doesn’t aim to answer, “what will happen?” Instead, it asks:
- What could plausibly happen?
- What forces are already shaping the future?
- In which futures is our strategy most fragile?
- And how can we prepare for more than one version of tomorrow?
The goal is not certainty, but preparedness. Scenario thinking helps leadership teams stretch their assumptions, sharpen their focus, and prepare for a wider range of strategic risks and opportunities.
For distributors in 2025 facing disintermediation, AI acceleration, climate change, trade volatility and margin compression, that kind of preparedness is more important than ever.
How We Built the Scenarios
After cataloguing the most important social, technological, and economic shifts impacting wholesale distribution, we focused in on two critical uncertainties that, together, our research team felt will shape the structure of the industry over the next decade:
- Investment in Innovation
Will distributors and the broader supply chain ecosystem accelerate investment in transformative innovation, or will adoption remain cautious, fragmented and/or slow? - The Global Operating Environment
Will the world move toward greater global integration and cooperation, or will it fragment into more regionalized, protectionist and volatile systems?
When placed on a 2×2 matrix, they generate four distinct futures for the sector. Each one reflects a different intersection of market conditions, operating constraints and competitive dynamics and implications for the future of distribution.
The Four Scenarios: Distribution in 2035
- Trusted Links
Low innovation • Global integration
This is a world where supply chains are efficient, markets are stable, and distributors remain essential, but mostly in familiar forms. Regulatory pressures and cost headwinds have slowed the pace of innovation. Distributors are expected to offer greater visibility, value-added services, and sustainability reporting without fundamentally transforming how they operate.
Think: Traditional distribution, operating on a global stage, with heightened expectations but moderate tech disruption.
- Race to Reinvent
High innovation • Global integration
A hyperconnected, AI-accelerated world where manufacturers sell direct, platforms dominate procurement, and distributors must become data-driven platforms themselves — or risk irrelevance. Innovation is fast, global and relentless. The distributors that survive look more like tech companies than logistics players.
Think: Compete with Amazon, Alibaba, and AI-native upstarts — or get consolidated, fast.
- Shrinking Horizons
Low innovation • Regional fragmentation
Global supply chains have fractured. Sourcing is regional. Trade is politicized. In this world, distributors thrive not on scale or software, but on trust, adaptability and deep local relationships. Investment in tech is modest, but targeted – focused on reinforcing regional moats rather than building global networks.
Think: Niche over reach. Stability comes from specialization, resilience, and reputation.
- The Fortress Economy
High innovation • Regional fragmentation
Innovation is accelerating, but so is overall instability. In this fractured, protectionist world, distributors face cyberattacks, authoritarian regulation and AI-native competitors. The winners are hyper-automated, ruthlessly efficient and deeply integrated with regional supply networks. Everyone else struggles to survive.
Think: A world where AI is necessary for survival, but not sufficient for success.
Why This Framework Matters
Each of these scenarios paints a very different picture of what success looks like. Each demands different capabilities, different customer strategies and different investment priorities.
More importantly, each scenario invites a question:
- Would your current strategy thrive in this world or fall apart?
- What big bets are you making today that assume the world will look a certain way?
- Are you preparing only for the future you prefer or predict? Or for the range of futures you might actually face?
In our next post, we’ll explore how distributors can use this framework to build more resilient, adaptive strategies. But for now, we encourage leadership teams to start the conversation:
Which of these futures would see your current strategy flourish?
Which would be most dangerous for your business?
What would you need to do now to be ready for any of them?
Next Up: Using Scenarios to Guide Smarter Strategy
In the final post of this series, we’ll walk through how to apply these scenarios inside your business as tools to inform decision-making, investment and long-range planning.
If you’re serious about preparing for the future of distribution, building strategic foresight muscles through activities like scenario planning is a must. The key is translating insights about plausible futures into strategic choices you can make today.
Want the full report when it’s ready? Sign up here to get notified of our upcoming June 25 webcast and research release.
