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Latest In Economic Trends
Economists had expected December's starts to be flat vs. November.
It topped consensus estimates by a healthy margin, though December’s gain was revised lower.
The monthly CPI had its slowest acceleration since May, and core inflation had its smallest annual move since early 2021.
Total December sales had modest growth, but were helped by an additional selling day vs. a year earlier.
Over the month, commercial planning fell 7.2% and institutional planning momentum slowed by 4.4%, according to the Dodge Momentum Index.
After a tariff-driven May-August slump, orders accelerated throughout the rest of 2025 and entered 2026 with underlying momentum.
Though the figures were a positive sign for manufacturing momentum, ISM survey commentary acknowledged that January is a reorder month and likely was influenced by buyers trying to get ahead of expected price increases.
We break down the latest key figures out of the Census Bureau’s November report that showed a solid monthly rebound in factory orders - largely driven by nondefense aircraft.
The hold comes despite pressure from President Donald Trump and the greater administration that includes the Justice Department opening a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Our latest MarketPulse Report shares a wealth of data and analysis from the 4Q25 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey - conducted Jan. 5-12 - that covered respondents' revenue performance, pricing updates and business expectations for 1Q26 and the rest of the year, plus plenty of market-specific commentary.
Metalforming manufacturers indicated month-to-month improvement in their January outlook survey for near-term business conditions, incoming orders and shipping levels.
October negated most of September's decline and was the fourth gain in the past five months.
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One manufacturer said the overall rise in prices for carbide and HSS-based products has become more apparent.
This comprehensive MDM 1Q26 Forecast Report is a guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution economy, providing a historical, current and future snapshot of numerous key economic indicators in one convenient place along with our exclusive sector-specific forecasts for 19 different product categories.
The U.S. ended the year with two straight healthy monthly gains, though 4Q25's manufacturing output was still still down year-over-year.
The bank said the resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the 2026 forecast.
Core PPI was flat for the month, while posting the largest YoY increase since March 2025.
Meanwhile, core inflation's year-over-year rise slightly trailed economists' forecast.
