The latest monthly MDM Forecast reflects a solid upward revision in projected annual revenues for 2025, while our 2026 projection likewise improved vs. August. We forecast 2025 annual growth for all but two of the 19 wholesale trade sectors as identified by the U.S. Census Bureau, followed by growth for all sectors in 2026.
As always, the key value in the MDM Forecast comes from the sector-specific forecasts it provides.
The MDM Forecast model uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s revenue data but strips out the broader inclusions of agents and brokers, manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, importers and exporters — focusing exclusively on wholesale distributors. The MDM Forecast utilizes the baseline economic forecast modeling from analysis firm Moody’s Analytics and applies wholesale distribution government data to it.
Data for the MDM Forecast is compiled by the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of Business of the University of Colorado Boulder.
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The Big Picture
Updated with the Bureau’s Sept. 10 wholesale trade report data that reflects industry figures through July 2025, our outlook for U.S. wholesale distribution annual revenue improved in September vs. August to show solid annual growth in the current year at a healthy acceleration from 2024. We now forecast 5.6% annual growth for the industry in 2025 — up a full percent from a month earlier and well above the industry’s long-run average.
For context, the industry saw a 2.0% growth in 2024 and a 1.9% decline in 2023.
Our September revision included monthly improvements of 250 points and 120 points for the industry’s two largest sectors — Oil & Gas and Pharmaceuticals, respectively — which influenced the broader industry figures since they combine to represent nearly a quarter of its total revenue.
Further out, the industry’s updated 2026 growth projection is also at 5.6% — up 20 basis points from our August forecast.
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Key Context
The overall industry revenue forecast should always be taken with a grain of salt since the broad numbers are heavily influenced by the largest industries — Oil & Gas and Pharmaceuticals — which combined represent north of one-fourth of the industry’s total revenue.
The much bigger value of this forecast is the industry-specific outlooks as a more granular gauge for your markets.
September Revenue Forecast
September 2025 MDM Forecast: U.S. Wholesale Distribution Revenue Expectations by Sector
Reflecting U.S. Census Bureau data through July – released Sept. 10
Click on the chart for a hi-res version
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Revenue Scenarios
Here is our latest projection for alternative revenue scenarios in U.S. wholesale distribution, reflecting scenarios for baseline, optimistic, pessimistic, baseline high and baseline low.
September’s 2025 Month-to-Month Differences
The aforementioned upward revisions to the Oil & Gas and Pharmaceutical sectors helped improve the overall industry’s forecast, but there were other notable month-to-month adjustments. The other sectors seeing the biggest upward movement were Hardware, Plumbing and HVACR at +320 basis points, Metals Service Centers at +270 and Electrical & Electronics at +250. Meanwhile, the biggest downward revisions were in Apparel & Piece Goods (-330 bps) and Agricultural Products (-310).
September’s 2026 Month-to-Month Differences
Further out, the biggest sector movers for our 2026 forecast were Building Material & Construction (-270 bps and Office Product & Paper (+190).
