Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) shared its monthly TRENDS report on March 6, showing that January sales by distributors increased by 3.45% year-over-year.

January’s gain followed December’s 14.2% spike, but December had a favorable year-over-year comparison that included an additional selling day. HARDI estimated that comparable December sales were up 8.8%.

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On an annual basis, the growth rate for the 12 months through January 2025 was 4.2%, up from 3.9% in December.

“The sales to inventory ratio was improving across all the regions during 2024 until pre-buy activity during the fourth quarter,” HARDI Macroeconomic & Residential Market Analyst Brian Loftus said in the report. “The improvement resumed in several of the regions during January.”

The Days Sales Outstanding — which measures how quickly customers pay their bills — was less than 38 days during January.

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Loftus added: “The Fed was trying to slow the economy for 30 months until the rate cut in September. The unemployment rate has been close to 4.1% since June, and the three-month average monthly job growth has improved since that first rate cut. We are very pleased to see the 10-year bond yield following the fed funds rate lower. The mortgage rate typically follows the 10-year yield, so this could have a positive impact on existing home sales, and replacement demand, for HARDI members this summer.”