Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.10 in April from –0.55 in March. All four of the broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, but three of the four categories made nonpositive contributions to the index in April.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.18 in March. April’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.17 in April from -0.22 in March. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 40 made negative contributions. Fifty-four indicators improved from March to April, while 31 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI rose to +0.19 in April from -0.39 in March. Industrial production increased by 0.7 percent in April after declining by 0.9 percent in March. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in April, up slightly from -0.01 in March.
The contribution from employment-related indicators to the CFNAI ticked up to -0.02 in April from -0.04 in March. The civilian unemployment rate was steady at 5.0 percent in April after ticking up in March. However, nonfarm payrolls increased by 160,000 in April after rising by 208,000 in the previous month.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to -0.07 in April from -0.11 in March. Housing starts increased to 1,172,000 annualized units in April from 1,099,000 in March, and housing permits moved up to 1,116,000 annualized units in April from 1,077,000 in the previous month.
