ISM PMI Holds as Production Slips, Prices Jump - Modern Distribution Management

ISM PMI Holds as Production Slips, Prices Jump

ISM shared that 19% of the manufacturing sector’s GDP contracted in April, compared to 16% in March.
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U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in April, growing at the same pace as the month before.

The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index — seen as a reliable barometer for the industrial sector — registered 52.7% in April, the same reading as March.

The PMI had held in the high-40s for two years before surging 470 basis points in January, and it’s held near there since.

Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, the new orders and supplier deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, while the production index grew at a slower rate, and the employment and inventories indexes remained in contraction.

ISM shared that 19% of the manufacturing sector’s GDP contracted in April, compared to 16% in March, and the percentage of GDP in strong contraction (composite PMI of 45% or lower) decreased to 2%, compared to 4% in March.

Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (transportation equipment; machinery; computer and electronic products; and chemical products) expanded in April.

ISM PMI April Survey Respondent Commentary

In the commentary collected by the ISM, 31% of the comments were positive and 69% were negative, with a positive to negative sentiment ratio of 1 to 2.2. Among comments, the Iran War was mentioned in 47% and tariffs in 18%.

As was the case last month, some panelists referenced both topics within a single comment or in mixed sentiment.

Here is the sampling of commentary provided by ISM in its April manufacturing PMI report:

  • “Demand for manufactured goods is trending higher versus last year; however, geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil and diesel prices continue to weigh on demand. Many customers are exercising caution and remain in a wait-and-watch mode.” (Transportation Equipment)
  • “Continued tariffs on products utilized in our product lines are being monitored by the business, with the business working to mitigate or limit tariff risk. Geopolitical risk, especially in the Middle East, as it pertains to commodity and energy markets remains a concern and is being monitored by the business. Supply chain risk concerns pertaining to increased cost and transit time for rerouted shipments due to conflict in the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal. These conditions are being monitored by the business and rerouting measures have been implemented where possible.” (Transportation Equipment]=)
  • “Continuing fluctuation in U.S. tariffs as well as market constraints for certain materials are affecting our current business. U.S. support of AI-related industry is also in flux which is causing some customer and investment hesitancy.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “All products tied to crude, polyethylene resin or energy (liquified natural gas) have seen multiple increase spikes tied to the Iran crisis and market supply inflation.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Revenues are very strong. However, price increases are similar to a few years ago with the supply chain crisis. All imports from China are up 15 percent to 25 percent, which is impossible for us to absorb or to fully pass along. Our suppliers in China are telling us that oil is at an all-time high, which is putting huge challenges on their cost structures.” (Chemical Products)
  • “General uncertainty over the total impact of the U.S.-Iran war. Have not yet started to see the full impact of fuel increases but are aware they are coming.” (Machinery)
  • “Business levels have been decent this year, in line with the same period last year and improved from the second half of 2025. However, higher cost pressures are impacting margins.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Commodity markets remain mixed, with pockets of easing offset by ongoing volatility. Dairy and some soft commodities have cooled, while oils and grain-related inputs remain elevated given biofuel demand and feed costs. Pricing is still sensitive to policy changes, weather and global trade dynamics.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Our business remains strong and stable, but there are a lot of concerns in the geopolitical arena. If the Iran conflict persists, the impact on market pricing and supply continuity could be extreme. Electronics component market remains very volatile (pricing and continuity) based on AI.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

 

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