The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rose to 0.56 in November

Fifty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.56 in November from -0.76 in October. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to -0.25 in November from -0.35 in October.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, ticked up to –0.23 in November from –0.24 in October. Fifty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contribu­tions to the CFNAI in November, while 35 made negative contributions. Sixty-four indicators improved from October to November, while 21 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.

Production-related indicators contributed +0.49 to the CFNAI in November, up from –0.60 in October. Industrial production rose 1.1% in November after decreasing 0.9% in October. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI was up to –0.04 in November from –0.0 5 in October.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.12 to the CFNAI in November, up from –0.07 in October. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 266,000 in November after increasing by 156,000 in October, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% in November from 3.6% in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI was up to –0.02 in November from –0.05 in October. Housing starts increased to1,365,000 annualized units in November from 1,323,000 in October.

 

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