The National Association for Business Economics reports in its latest survey that its panel of business economists expects the recession will end soon, but that the economic recovery will be "considerably more moderate" than those typically experienced after steep declines.
And despite "encouraging signs seen in the last several weeks," the NABE panel said downside risks for the next several quarters remain – and include large job losses, no improvement in credit conditions, and sharp declines in home values. As a result, consumers remain cautious.
Forecasts from the survey:
- Real GDP forecast to rise at a 1.2% rate in the second half of 2009, resulting in a 1.2% decline at year-end.
- Unemployment rate to rise to 9.8% by the end of the year.
- Inflation is expected to moderate.
