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Optimistic, rising return-on-investment graph on US dollars

Respondents in the 1Q25 Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey were divided on 2025 demand and investment outlooks, as tariff uncertainty clouds confidence and prompts cautious strategic planning. See our full breakdown of the results.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORTS

This comprehensive MDM 1Q25 Forecast is a guide to the industrial economy for wholesale distribution executives, providing a historical, current and future snapshot of numerous key economic indicators in one convenient place.
Our 2024 EOR is a comprehensive economic reference guide to the U.S. wholesale distribution industry and its many different verticals. It is comprised of 20 different subreports.

Premium Monthly

Now live, the issue’s content spans your role as a source of tariff clarity; the business case for women-specific PPE; why QXO relentlessly pursued Beacon; what distributors pay their fleet staff; our latest MDM Forecast; a fasteners market profile; and more.

Market Insight Reports

MDM’s 1Q25 MarketPulse Report consists of the quarterly results, analysis and commentary from the Baird-MDM Industrial Distribution Survey that explored revenue performance, pricing and expectations for the current quarter and rest-of-year.
See our new breakdown of M&A activity by product category, the latest EBITDA trading multiples for 30 top industrial distributors, and our detailed recap of dealmaking activity during January-March, which was notably subdued compared to previous quarters.

Case Studies

The metalworking and MRO supplies distributor has successfully transitioned from a catalog-driven product house that relied on spot-buys to its role today as a digitally-driven, “Mission Critical” company. Here’s how.
Watsco has achieved a marketing-leading position in HVACR distribution through a combination of deep supplier partnerships, a buy-and-build philosophy and a technology-first mindset. We examine the company’s recent evolution and where it’s going.

Many privately held distributors have advisory boards, but they are comprised entirely of insiders. Or the board is convened merely as a formality or legality. But a so-called real board" could help in formulating and enforcing company strategy, as well as provide a venue to ensure your wishes are carried out after you retire or in the case of a disabling injury or death.

Julia Klein, president and CEO of building materials distributor CH Briggs Co., Reading, PA, created an advisory board for her third-generation business about 18 months ago.

"I can tell you, it's one of the best things I've ever done," she says. "We had what many family businesses had -a perfunctory family board where we would pretend to meet over dinner, once a year, and have our lawyer write …

The three Ps of process, productivity and profitability separate companies that are doing OK from ones that perform in the top tier of peers. That will continue to be the key differentiator.

The performance analysis reports many distribution associations sponsor offer a wealth of benchmark data about how well your company is doing in a range of financial performance metrics. Historically, a relatively low percentage of distributors participate in these data aggregation programs. Yet these types of tools are critical to make any kind of real change stick in your business. How else can you create realistic goals and then the specific short- and long-term steps to get there?

The report card in the area of productivity is better. Several studies have shown that distributors …

The industrial product group listed here – hose and fittings – represented a market in 2006 of $2.96 billion, according to estimates by Industrial Market Information, Minneapolis. These charts show the top ten industries, by SIC code, consuming these products; and the 2005 end-user consumption of these groups sorted by the nine government market regions.

Download this document below. For other market analyses in the MDM archives, go to the MDM Databank for a comprehensive …

Modern Distribution Management’s May Inflation Index, which measures a cross-section of industrial supplies, was up 0.18% from the previous month, and up 3.5% from May 2006.

Summary of&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for the past 12 months:

May 2007 Index 271.2
April 2007 Index 270.8
March 2007 Index 269.6
February 2007 Index 269.4
January 2007 Index 268.7
December 2006 Index&nbsp ; 267.1
November 2006 Index 266.5
October 2006 Index 265.9
September 2006 Index 265.6
August 2006 Index 265.2
July 2006 Index 264.0
June 2006 Index 263.0
May 2006 Index 262.1

Please click below to view a print-ready pdf of the&nbsp ; MDM Inflation Index for May 2007, listing the ten individual product categories that make …

May 2007 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $357.2 billion, up 1.3 percent from the revised April level and were up 8.7 percent from the May 2006 level.
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The April preliminary estimate was revised upward $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent. May sales of durable goods were down 0.5 percent from last month, but were up 4.2 percent from a year ago.

Compared to last month, sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were down 5.3 percent. May sales of nondurable goods were up 2.9 percent from last month and were up 13.1 percent from last year. Compared to last month, sales of farm product raw materials were up 9.5 …

May U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $313.74 million, according to the American Machine Tool Distributors’ Association and the Association For Manufacturing Technology. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was up 6.5% from April, but down 6.5% from the total of $335.52 million reported for May 2006. With a year-to-date total of $1,606.13 million, 2007 was up 7.5% compared with 2006.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

Growth this year, while less robust than in 2006, has now stabilized in the high, single digit range,” said John J. Healy, AMTDA president. “In addition, each of the regions in the U.S. has shown …

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June for the fifth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 68th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.&nbsp ;

Following a weak first quarter, the manufacturing sector rebounded in a strong fashion during the second quarter. In June, manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace since April 2006 when the PMI Index registered 56.9. This performance appears sustainable in the third quarter due to the current strength in New Orders and Production.&nbsp ;

The 12 industries reporting growth in June & mdash; listed in order & mdash; are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage …

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced that construction spending during May 2007 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,176.6 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised April estimate. The May figure is 2.8 percent (& plusmn; 2.2%) below the May 2006 estimate of $1,210.0 billion.
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During the first five months of this year, construction spending amounted to $442.1 billion, 3.9 percent (& plusmn; 1.8%) below the $460.1 billion for the same period in 2006.
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Private Construction
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $892.1 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised April estimate of $887.6 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $549.0 billion …

Influenced by the strength of the Canadian dollar, prices in Canada for manufactured products declined in May after six consecutive monthly increases. Crude oil pushed down prices for raw materials.
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From April to May, prices charged by manufacturers, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), registered a&nbsp ; 0.5% decline after six consecutive monthly increases. The decrease in prices basically reflects a drop in the prices for motor vehicles and other transportation equipment as well as primary metal products and pulp and paper products.
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However, higher prices for petroleum and coal products tempered the decline in the Industrial Product Price Index.
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On a 12-month basis, the IPPI advanced&nbsp ; 3%, a slowdown from the&nbsp …

Real gross domestic product -the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the U.S. -increased at an annual rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2007, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.&nbsp ; In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.5%.
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The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month.&nbsp ; In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was 0.6%.
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The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, …

Wholesalers posted sharply lower sales in April, as declines in a number of major sectors erased all of the strong gains made over the previous two months.
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Overall sales fell by 3.1% in April to an estimated $42.8&nbsp ; billion. April’s drop was the largest since August&nbsp ; 2003&nbsp ; and followed increases of 2.3% and 0.9% in March and February respectively.
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Five of the seven wholesale sectors registered declines in April. Leading the way was the automotive products sector (-8.3%), followed by other products” (-5.9%) and machinery and electronic equipment (-2.3%). Sales of building materials and farm products also posted decreases in April.
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The only positive note came in the food, beverage and tobacco products sector (+0.8%), while sales …

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for May 2007:
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Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 3% above the revised April rate of 1,457,000, but is 21.7% below the revised May 2006 estimate of 1,918,000.
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Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 1,056,000; this is 1.8% below the April figure of 1,075,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 379,000 in May.
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Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of …

Profits for electrical distributors in 2006 rose sharply to the highest level since 1993, reaching a median of 3.7%, according to the National Association of Electrical Distributors in its annual Performance Analysis Report (PAR).
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The 3.7% figure represents the third consecutive year of sharp rises in profit margins, compared to medians of 2.9% in 2005, 2.1% in 2004, and 1.3% in 2004. Among a select group of high profit” distributors, the 2006 profit margin was almost twice as high at 7.3%.
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Accompanying the increased profits were 2006 median sales increases of 17.4%, also the highest in a decade, and higher than the 11.1% increase recorded in 2005.
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The report’s author, Dr. Al Bates of Profit Planning Group in Boulder, CO, cautioned that a …

Following a strong gain in March, Canadian manufacturing shipments edged down in April. Shipments decreased by&nbsp ; 0.6% to an estimated&nbsp ; $49.7&nbsp ; billion.
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Excluding the motor vehicle parts and accessory industries, manufacturing shipments increased&nbsp ; 1% in April.
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At&nbsp ; 1997&nbsp ; prices, shipments rose&nbsp ; 0.5% to&nbsp ; $45&nbsp ; billion. The constant dollar measurement takes price fluctuations into account. This was the fifth volume advance in six months.

Shipments declined in&nbsp ; 12&nbsp ; of&nbsp ; 21&nbsp ; manufacturing industries, which represent about&nbsp ; 51% of total output.
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Shipments of non-durable goods increased for the third consecutive month in April, rising&nbsp ; 0.7% to&nbsp ; $22.5&nbsp …

Industrial production was unchanged in May after a smaller revised increase of 0.4 percent in April. Output in the manufacturing sector edged up 0.1 percent in May, and mining output moved up 0.5 percent after declining 0.6 percent in April.
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At 112.7 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial production for May was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry fell 0.2 percentage point, to 81.3 percent, a level 0.3 percentage point above its 1972-2006 average.
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Market Groups
The output of consumer goods decreased 0.2 percent in May after having risen 0.8 percent in April. The production of consumer durables edged down 0.1 percent in May, and the output of nondurables fell 0.3 percent. …

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.9 percent in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. This advance followed a 0.7-percent rise in April and a 1.0-percent increase in March.

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The index for finished goods excluding foods and energy moved up 0.2 percent in May after remaining unchanged in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of intermediate goods increased 1.1 percent in May after advancing 0.9 percent a month earlier, and the crude goods index turned up 2.0 percent following a decline of 1.5 percent in April.
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Among finished goods, the index for consumer goods less foods and energy moved up 0.3 percent in May after inching down 0.1 percent in the previous …

Fuel costs have hit a record high in the past month, staying above $3 a gallon, and that is causing no shortage of headaches in the distribution world. Past surveys done by MDM in collaboration with Channel Marketing Group, Raleigh, NC, indicate that many distributors simply pass on the increased fuel costs to customers. (Stem the Tide: Rising Fuel Costs, MDM, May 25, 2006)

Distributors have implemented a fuel surcharge or service change for deliveries, increased existing charges, or implemented a delivery charge on orders under a minimum-dollar value. Some are integrating the added cost into the product price.

In light of higher fuel costs, look at your current minimum order size. Should it be …

April U.S. manufacturing technology consumption totaled $281.54 million, according to The Association For Manufacturing Technology and the American Machine Tool Distributors’Association. This total, as reported by companies participating in the USMTC program, was down 27.2% from March, but up 2.2% from the total of $275.43 million reported for April 2006. With a year-to-date total of $1,259.09 million, 2007 was up 8.7% compared with 2006.

These numbers and all data in this report are based on the totals of actual data reported by companies participating in the USMTC program.

Strength in the oil field and auto sectors has brought increased demand in the Central region of the country,” said John B. Byrd III. “Through April this region has the greatest increase in …

Canadian industries slightly increased the use of their production capacity during the first quarter of&nbsp ; 2007, halting four consecutive quarters of decline.

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Capacity utilization edged up from&nbsp ; 82.4% in the fourth quarter of&nbsp ; 2006&nbsp ; to&nbsp ; 83.0%. This level was&nbsp ; 3.0&nbsp ; points below the rate posted in the fourth quarter of&nbsp ; 2005, before the quarterly drops observed in&nbsp ; 2006.
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The industrial capacity utilization rate is the ratio of an industry’s actual output to its estimated potential output. For this release, rates have been revised back to the first quarter of&nbsp ; 2005&nbsp ; to reflect the revised source data.
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Production rose slightly in the large manufacturing sector, but capacity use …

The industrial producer price index rose by 0.4% in the euro area in April 2007. In March, prices increased by 0.3%.

In April 2007, compared with April 2006, industrial producer prices gained 2.4% in the euro area.

The highest monthly increases were registered in Bulgaria and Greece (1.9%) and Denmark (1.8%). Decreases were recorded in the United Kingdom (-0.8%), Slovakia (-0.3%) and Belgium (-0.1%).

The highest year-over-year increases were recorded in Luxembourg (8.7%), Hungary (8%), Bulgaria (7.9%)&nbsp ; and Lithuania (7.3%). A decrease was registered in Denmark.

For more on European economic statistics, including industrial production, price indexes, construction output and industrial orders,&nbsp ; visit the MDM …

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