Editor’s Note: This is the final post in our 4-part series previewing new research from MDM, conducted with support from Infor. In Part 1, we explored the confidence gap in distributor strategy. In Part 2, we mapped the key forces reshaping the industry. In Part 3, we introduced four future scenarios for wholesale distribution in 2035. Now, in Part 4, we focus on how to use those scenarios to stress-test your strategy and prepare for the future – before it arrives. Join us for our live webcast on June 25 for deeper insights and discussion on this futures research sponsored by Infor.

The Toy Company That Built Its Own Wind Tunnel

In late 2020, one of the world’s largest toy manufacturers found itself in a situation few would have expected. Amidst a global crisis, the company experienced the strongest growth year in its history. With families around the world staying home, demand for their games, toys and entertainment products had skyrocketed. But inside the company, leaders were asking an uncomfortable question: Was this growth a spike – or a new baseline?

They knew COVID wouldn’t last forever. The open question was what would happen when it ended. Would families revert to vacations and restaurants? Would the “experience economy” roar back and pull spending away from toys? Or might the new habits formed during lockdown persist and reshape the category for good?

The company didn’t try to guess. Instead, they invested in scenario planning.

Working across functions and regions, we worked with the executive team to build a set of future scenarios focused on the pandemic’s possible paths and their implications for consumer behavior across key global markets. Then, we developed a portfolio of strategy responses:

• No-regret moves: Actions that made sense in every scenario, like digital channel upgrades and supply chain localization.
• Strategic bets: Bold initiatives that would pay off big in some futures but carried more risk in others, like investing in indoor play subscription services.
• Hedges and wait-and-see moves: exploratory investments designed to give the company flexibility as the future revealed itself.

The result? The company didn’t just weather post-pandemic volatility – they outperformed year after year after year.

Why Distribution Strategy Needs the Same Discipline

That toy company had the foresight to ask: What if our assumptions don’t hold?

Distributors should be asking the same thing. Our research, which we’ll be revealing more fully in our June 25 webcast, shows that an overwhelming majority of distributors don’t believe their current strategic plan is sufficient to handle the disruption they expect in the next three to five years. And yet most strategies still implicitly assume the future will look enough like the present to keep doing “what works.” It’s time to change that in distribution.

That’s why we built four distinct future scenarios for wholesale distribution (explored in Part 3 of this series) — not to predict what’s coming, but to help leaders test their strategies under radically different conditions.

From Scenarios to Strategy

We introduced the four scenarios for the future of distribution not to play futurist. And not to write science fiction, although that can be fun. We created these stories to do one thing: drive better action today so that distributors are more successful tomorrow.

Each scenario – Trusted Links, Race to Reinvent, Shrinking Horizons andThe Fortress Economy – is built on the forces of change distributors told us they were feeling most (see Part 2 of this series). But the real value is what they help you see: new risks, new blindspots, and new possibilities.

The question now is: What will you do differently because of them?

One of the tools for answering that question is called wind-tunneling, an often-used methodology in the strategic foresight world to understand how our current strategy might hold up in the face of alternative versions of the future.

What Is Wind-Tunneling? (And Why It’s So Powerful)

Wind-tunneling is a strategic foresight method borrowing from an analogy in aerospace engineering. The idea is simple: before you send a plane into the sky, you test and de-risk it against different wind conditions.

In business, the same logic applies. Wind-tunneling means taking a current strategy and evaluating how it performs across multiple plausible futures.

Here’s how it works:

1. Run your strategy through each scenario.
   How does this play out in Race to Reinvent versus Shrinking Horizons? Do your investments still hold in a fragmented geopolitical environment or one dominated by platform ecosystems?
2. Assess what holds, what bends, and what breaks.
   From this, you’ll identify:

• • No-regret moves (safe and valuable in every future)
  • Contingent bets (high-risk/high-reward depending on how the world turns)
  • Hedges or exploratory options (lower-cost ways to prepare for divergent paths)

It’s Not Just Theory: Global Leaders Already Use This

Some of the world’s most successful strategy stories have their roots in scenario planning for strategy:

Shell

In the 1970s, Shell built scenarios that included a plausible oil shock, years before the OPEC crisis hit. When it did, Shell was ready. They responded faster than competitors and climbed into the top tier of global energy players. Foresight didn’t predict the shock, but it sure made Shell the most prepared for it.

Singapore Government

Singapore modeled pandemic scenarios long before COVID-19. Those scenarios shaped national strategy, from medical supply stockpiles to border controls. The result? One of the most effective pandemic responses in the world. Governments use scenarios not just to imagine risk, but to organize around it.

Maersk

The global shipping giant uses wind-tunneling to assess how it might fare amid cyberattacks, climate regulation, and supply chain fragmentation, leading to major investments in digital infrastructure and even diversified shipping routes – years before some of those threats hit.

Three Things You Can Do This Quarter

If you’re looking for an entry point, start here:

1. Run a scenario-based discussion.
   In your next team meeting, hold your strategy up against the four futures we’ve developed. Do it in a 90-minute team session. You’ll be amazed what surfaces.
2. Inventory your assumptions.
   Which beliefs underpin your current strategy? Are they still safe bets? What if they change?
3. Create a foresight radar.
   Pick one early signal for each scenario that you want to monitor. Build a system to track the progress of that change in the world and your market. Revisit your monitoring on a regular basis to discuss implications to your strategy.

The Best Strategies Rely on Proactive Preparation over Prediction

The future will undoubtedly surprise us. Where strategies get into trouble is being unprepared for anything but the single version of the future we assumed would play out.

That toy company didn’t know how a global pandemic would unfold. They just made sure they were ready for multiple versions of the future. You can do the same.

Join Us to Learn More

Want the full report when it’s ready? Sign up here to get notified of our upcoming June 25 webcast and research release.

The Futures Thinking Series

• Part 1: 9 in 10 Distributors Say Their Business Strategy Won’t Hold Up. Why Futures Thinking is the Answer
• Part 2: Futures Thinking: The Forces of Change Distributors Can’t Ignore
• Part 3: Four Futures Every Distributor Should Be Prepared For