The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Consumer Price Inex Summary on April 10, showing that its all-items index increased 2.4% for the 12 months ending March.

On a monthly basis, March’s all-items index decreased 0.1%, following a 0.2% rise in February and a 0.5% gain in January.

Overall, it was the CPI’s first monthly decline in prices in nearly five years (May 2020), signaling weakened demand potentially due to fears regarding tariffs. Additionally, the data prompted financial markets to anticipate a potential 100 basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would edge up 0.1% month-to-month.

Get Our 1Q25 MDM Forecast Report (Premium access here) 

The monthly index for energy declined 2.4% in March vs February, while a 6.3-percent decline in the index for gasoline offset increases in electricity and natural gas. The index for food increased 0.4% in March, while the index for food at home rose 0.5% and the index for food away from home increased 0.4%.

The monthly index for all-items less food and energy — known as core inflation — rose 0.1% in March, following a 0.2% increase in February. Indexes that increased in March include personal care, medical care, education, apparel and new vehicles. Meanwhile, the indexes that decreased in March include airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks and recreation.

In the Store: MDM’s U.S. MRO Market Trends Report 

On a year-over-year basis, March’s core inflation rose 2.8% — the smallest 12-month gain since March 2021. The year-over-year energy index decreased 3.3%, while the food index increased 3.0%.

U.S. Core Inflation Rate Month-Over-Month

source: tradingeconomics.com

U.S. Core Inflation Rate Year-Over-Month

source: tradingeconomics.com