Flat August U.S. Industrial Production Misses Forecasts - Modern Distribution Management

Flat August U.S. Industrial Production Misses Forecasts

Manufacturing output fell month-over-month following a July increase, mining ticked up, while the index for utilities jumped on electrical. Get all the key figures here.
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U.S. Industrial Production went unchanged during August after a modest July increase, missing market expectations for a second straight month.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, issued Sept. 18, showed that total IP was flat in August, following a 0.2% July gain. Market forecasts called for a 0.3% August increase.

On an annual basis, production increased 1.3%, with the total index reaching 103.1% of its 2017 average.

The report showed that August manufacturing output fell 0.3% month-over-month after a 0.2% July improvement and was up 0.9% year-over-year.

The August index for mining increased 0.1% MoM (+0.1% in July), while utilities output jumped 1.8% (+0.5% in July).

Meanwhile, U.S. industrial capacity utilization was also unchanged in August 76.3%, which was 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2025) average.

U.S. Industrial Production: Month-Over-Month

U.S. Industrial Production: Year-Over-Year

Market Groups

The major market groups posted mixed results in August. The output of consumer goods edged up 0.1%, reflecting a gain in the index for nondurable consumer goods that offset a decline in the index for durable consumer goods. The indexes for business equipment and for defense and space equipment both declined — 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The index for construction supplies fell 0.7%, while the index for business supplies ticked up 0.1%. Materials output rose 0.2%, driven by a 0.7% increase in the output of energy materials.

Industry Groups

Manufacturing output decreased 0.3% in August after increasing for seven consecutive months. The output of durable manufacturing declined 0.5% in August, with broad-based declines across categories; the index for nondurable manufacturing was unchanged. Other manufacturing (publishing and logging) production increased 1.0%.

In August, mining output ticked up 0.1%. The index for utilities rose 1.8%, with an increase in the index for electric utilities more than offsetting a decrease in the index for natural gas utilities.

Capacity utilization for manufacturing declined 0.3 percentage point to 75.7% in August, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average. The operating rate for mining rose 0.1 percentage point to 86.3%, and the operating rate for utilities increased 1.1 percentage points to 71.3%. The rate for mining was 1.1 percentage points above its long-run average, while the rate for utilities remained substantially below its long-run average.

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