Key Fed Inflation Gauge Slows to 7-Month Low - Modern Distribution Management

Key Fed Inflation Gauge Slows to 7-Month Low

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a rise in personal income for January, while personal outlays and consumption expenditures saw a decline.
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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its personal income and outlays for January on Feb. 28, showing a slight increase in personal income vs. December, while personal outlays reported a decline for the month. Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) — the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge since 2000 — was at its lowest mark since June.

The figures revealed that personal income in January rose by $221.9 billion, or 0.9%, compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, disposable personal income — personal income minus personal current taxes — increased by $194.3 billion, or 0.9%. In contrast, PCE fell by 0.2%, or $30.7 billion, compared to December.

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The Bureau reported that personal outlays — the total of PCE, personal interest payments and personal current transfer payments — dropped by $52.7 billion from the previous month. Meanwhile, personal saving was recorded at $1.01 trillion in January, and the personal saving rate — the percentage of disposable personal income saved — stood at 4.6%.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Jan. 2025

The report indicated that the rise in current-dollar personal income in January was mainly driven by increases in personal current transfer receipts, compensation and personal income receipts on assets.

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Meanwhile, the $30.7 billion drop in current-dollar PCE for January was due to a $76.7 billion decline in spending on goods, offset by a $46.0 billion increase in spending on services.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Jan. 2025

The PCE price index for January rose by 0.3% vs. December and 2.5% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index likewise increased by 0.3% month-to-month and 2.6% from the same period a year prior.

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U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Jan. 2025

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