The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) released the results of its 2025 second quarter Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey results on May 30, which showed uncertainty from respondents at the lowest level since the 2Q20.

The survey polled approximately 300 manufacturers between May 8 – 27.

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Overall manufacturing sentiment from the survey fell to its lowest point since the second quarter of 2020, in 3Q, with 55.4% of respondents indicating they feel either somewhat or very positive about their company’s outlook, down 14.3% sequentially. Meanwhile, the NAM Manufacturing Outlook Index measured 69.7% in 1Q.

Business Conditions

Here is how respondents overall indicated their expected 12-month growth rates for various business conditions in the 2Q outlook survey, and how it compared to NAM’s 1Q25 survey.

• Sales: +1.3%, down from +3.4%
• Full-time employment: +0.6%, down from +1.1%
• Capital investments: +0.3%, down from +1.2%
• Prices of company’s products: +4.3%, up from +3.6%
• Inventories: -0.7%, down from -0.1%
• Production: +1.4%, down from +3.3%
• Employee wages: +2.5%, down from +2.8%
• Exports: -0.6%, down from +0.1%
• Raw material prices and other input costs: +5.8%, up from +5.5%

The NAM reported that trade uncertainty remained the top concern for respondents (77.0%) for the second consecutive quarter.

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Tariff Concerns

When asked about the difficulties presented by tariffs concerns, respondents said manufacturing bottom lines have been impacted (respondents were permitted to choose more than one response — responses exceed 100%):

• 0% of respondents said that the cost of doing business has increased due to tariffs, the average claiming a 7.7% increase in cost
• When asked about how recent changes to tariffs impacted business, 79.8% of manufacturers said they faced increased costs
• 4% of respondents said they faced a dampened business growth outlook
• 2% of respondents said they faced reduced availability or increased costs of inputs
• 4% of respondents said they faced delayed or canceled investments, such as capital expenditures, new facilities or R&D
• 7% of respondents said they aced paused hiring, reduced workforce or decreased workers’ hours or pay

Other 2Q findings on the tariff front:

• 8% of respondents expect raw material prices and other input costs to increase, the highest rate since 2Q22
• 8% of respondents said tariffs have impacted their export opportunities, while manufacturers are anticipating export sales to decline (-0.6%) over the next 12 months
• The vast majority of respondents (85.4%) said Congress should act swiftly to prevent tax increases on manufacturers

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“These numbers are yet another indicator that manufacturers need increased policy certainty,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said in the survey results. “Congress must act urgently to preserve tax reform and empower manufacturers to make the long-term investments that drive the American economy.”