Indian River Consulting Group’s weekly Pandemic Revenue Index for the week of March 23-27, 2020, indicated a 23.51% decline compared with the same week a year ago. IRCG began publishing the distributor Pandemic Revenue Index the final week of March as a way to give distributors a weekly quantified view into how other distributors in the industry are faring with respect to revenue declines as the global COVID-19 pandemic progresses.
To supplement the PRI data, IRCG has also released a free downloadable cash-flow modeling spreadsheet, available on their website at ircg.com/stress-testing. “There is a wide range of financial savvy among distributors, and this tool has been put together as a resource for those that have not developed the projection tools that will allow them to act early as events unfold,” said Mike Emerson, IRCG Partner. “Distributors that wait until cost-reduction and other actions are upon them will have to cut deeper and more drastically than if they devised strategies with triggers in advance.”
The sample represented in the PRI is diverse, reflecting the different impacts of COVID-19 on individual distributors. “All distributors reporting data for the PRI saw decreases in sales relative to last year. We have had discussions with distributors that have not seen any decline, but the jury’s out on whether it’s just a matter of time for them, too,” said Emerson. “Now is the time to have a plan if the trend continues.”
The latest PRI adjusts the decline for the week of March 16-20 to -2.23% instead of the previously reported -5.56% due to an increase in survey participants and the loading of their historical data.
The PRI is being placed in the public domain to maximize impact. The distributors in Indian River Consulting Group’s sample group have agreed to share data until the crisis passes. If you’d like to participate in the PRI, please reach out to Mike Emerson, IRCG partner, at email@example.com.
The PRI data chart is approved for external publishing with proper attribution. Learn more at ircg.com/stress-testing.