The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Second Estimate: GDP Increased at Rate of 0.1% in 4Q12

Previous estimate had GDP declining in the fourth quarter.

Real gross domestic product – the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S. – increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

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The GDP estimate released is based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, real GDP declined 0.1 percent.  The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP is smaller than the average revision from the advance to second estimate of 0.5 percentage point. While today’s release has revised the direction of change in real GDP, the general picture of the economy for the fourth quarter remains largely the same as what was presented last month.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, federal government spending, exports, and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

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