U.S. wholesale inventories continued to climb in May, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s June 26 Advance Economic Indicators Report.

Merchant wholesale inventories, adjusted for seasonal variation and trading day differences but not price changes, were estimated at $944.0 billion at the end of May. That was up 0.3% from April and 4.3% from May 2025. The March-to-April increase was revised upward to 0.7% from the preliminary estimate of 0.6%.

Durable goods wholesale inventories rose 0.3% month-to-month to $586.7 billion and were up 3.4% year-over-year. Nondurable goods inventories increased 0.5% from April to $357.3 billion and were up 5.8% from a year earlier.

Retail inventories also rose in May, increasing 0.6% month-to-month to $832.2 billion and 3.4% year-over-year. Retail inventories excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4% from April, while motor vehicle and parts dealer inventories rose 1.0%.

The Census Bureau’s advance international trade data showed the goods deficit widening to $105.8 billion in May from $83.0 billion in April. Goods exports fell 5.4% month-to-month to $207.7 billion, while goods imports increased 3.6% to $313.4 billion.

Adjusted Inventory Figures

The Bureau’s full Monthly Wholesale Trade report covering May data is scheduled for release July 8 at 10 a.m. ET. That report will add sales and inventories-to-sales ratio data, providing a fuller look at whether the inventory build reflects stronger replenishment, slowing demand or a combination of both.

MDM Analysis

May’s advance figures suggest goods continued to accumulate across wholesale distribution, but the broader recent trend still points to inventories remaining relatively well-contained compared with sales. Wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in May after April’s gain was revised up to 0.7%, extending a multi-month inventory build. That follows April’s full Monthly Wholesale Trade report, which showed inventories rising 0.6% after March’s 1.5% gain — the largest monthly jump since August 2022.

However, April’s inventory-to-sales ratio showed that sales growth was still outpacing the inventory build. The seasonally adjusted ratio fell to 1.19 in April from 1.21 in March and 1.30 a year earlier, indicating fewer months of supply on hand relative to sales despite rising inventory values. That matters for interpreting May’s 0.3% wholesale inventory gain: by itself, it shows more stock moving into the channel, but not necessarily an overhang.

The key unresolved question is whether May sales kept pace. The Census Bureau’s advance report showed wholesale inventories at $944.0 billion in May, up 4.3% year-over-year, while retail inventories also rose 0.6% from April and 3.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, goods imports increased 3.6% from April, while exports fell 5.4%, widening the goods deficit — another sign that more supply was entering U.S. channels.

If May sales remained strong, the added inventory would point to continued replenishment and healthy goods movement. If sales cooled, the inventory build could mark the start of renewed stock pressure. The July 8 Monthly Wholesale Trade report will provide that answer through sales and inventory-to-sales ratio data.