The Conference Board reported its June 2025 Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) — seen as an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and the direction the economic is heading, respectively — on July 21.

The June 2025 LEI for the U.S. fell by 0.3% to 98.8, following an upwardly revised unchanged May, according to the latest index published by The Conference Board. Economists polled by The Wall Steet Journal had forecasted a 0.2% decline in June for the LEI.

The LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025 at a faster rate of decline than the first half of 2024 (-1.3%).

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“In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month,” The Conference Board Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said in the report. “At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.”

The June 2025 CEI for the U.S. increase by 0.3% to 115.1, following both an unchanged May and April.

In the six-month period ending June 2025, the CEI grew by 0.8%, down from its 1.0% rate over the previous six months. The component indicators of the CEI — payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production — improved in June.

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In addition to reporting its LEI and CEI, the Conference Board posted the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. which remained unchanged at 119.6 in June, following a 0.4% increase in May. Over the six-month period, growth rate turned positive at 1.4%, which reversed a 0.8% decline over the previous six months (June to December 2024).

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes