The Institute for Supply Management released its Supply Chain Planning Forecast on May 15, reflecting Business Survey panelists expectations for the remainder of 2025, which revealed a flat or slightly expanded manufacturing forecast through the year.

MDM Forecast: May 2025 Update (free for Premium)

Manufacturing revenue for 2025 is expected to rise by an average of 0.1%, down 4.1-percentage-points from the 4.2% forecast in December 2024 and 0.7-points below the 0.8% year-over-year increase reported for 2024.

According to the report, 34% of respondents expect revenues to increase by an average of 9.7% in 2025 compared to 2024, while 22% anticipate a decrease averaging 14.1%, and 44% expect no change.

MDM’s 1Q25 MarketPulse Report (store link) 

With an operating rate of 79.2%, a projected 1.3% decline in capital expenditure, a 7.5% increase in raw material prices and a slight 0.1% decrease in employment expected by the end of 2025, the manufacturing sector is projected to see minimal growth at best, according to ISM.

“With eight manufacturing industries expecting revenue growth in 2025 and eight industries expecting employment growth in 2025, panelists forecast a flat rest of the year,” ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore said in the report. “Sentiment in each industry was generally consistent with performance reports in the April 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, as well as the fall ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast conducted in December.”

In the Store: MDM’s U.S. MRO Market Trends Report 

Find a detailed breakdown of ISM’s findings here.