January U.S. Industrial Production Posts Best Gain in 11 Months - Modern Distribution Management

January U.S. Industrial Production Posts Best Gain in 11 Months

It topped consensus estimates by a healthy margin, though December’s gain was revised lower.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

U.S Industrial Production jumped 0.7% during January, topping consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase and well ahead of December’s 0.2% gain that was revised down from an initial 0.4%.

It was the strongest monthly increase since February 2025’s 1.0% rise.

Year-over-year, the overall index increased 2.3%.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, issued Feb. 18, showed that manufacturing output advanced 0.6% during January (+2.4% YoY) — also the most since February and above 0.4% forecasts, with widespread gains across industry groups. December’s manufacturing gain was revised down from 0.2% to flat.

January’s index for mining fell 0.2% month-to-month (+2.5% YoY) after a -0.9% December decrease, while utilities increased 2.1% (+1.1% YoY) after a 3.0% December gain.

Meanwhile, U.S. industrial capacity utilization stepped up to 76.2% — trailing expectations of 76.6% and still 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2024) average. December’s utilization rate was revised down 60 basis points to 75.7%.

U.S. Industrial Production: Month-Over-Month % Change

 

U.S. Industrial Production: Year-Over-Year % Change

Market Groups

All major market groups posted monthly gains in January. The output of consumer goods increased 0.7%, supported by increases in production of both durable and nondurable goods. The index for business equipment grew 0.9%, with gains in all market categories. The output of nonindustrial supplies rose 0.9%, with positive contributions from both business and construction supplies. The index for materials rose 0.6%.

Manufacturing Detail

Within manufacturing’s 0.6% January output increase, durable manufacturing output increased 0.8%, with gains in nearly all component industries, including increases of at least 1% in the production of nonmetallic mineral products, machinery, computer and electronic products, miscellaneous durable goods and motor vehicles and parts, which increased for the first time since August 2025. Nondurable manufacturing output rose 0.4%, with mixed results among component industries: Gains in the production of paper, printing and support, chemicals and plastics and rubber products more than offset declines in the remaining industries.

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