The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Real U.S. GDP Up 33.1% in 3Q According to ‘Second’ Estimate

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in PCE, private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending.
Real GDP 3Q 2020 Second Estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020, according to the “second” estimate released Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4%.

The GDP estimate released Wednesday is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1%. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in PCE, private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending (reflecting fewer fees paid to administer the Paycheck Protection Program loans) and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Current dollar GDP increased 38% at an annual rate, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8%, or $2.04 trillion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.3% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4% in the second quarter. The PCE price index increased 3.7%, in contrast to a decrease of 1.6%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.5%, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8%.

 

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